Mlb Opening Lines
Introduction
MLB Lines & Odds March 7th, 2021. Predictions will be released by 10AM PST during the MLB Season. Follow us on Twitter for updates. March 6th, 2021. March 8th, 2021. MLB SCORES AND ODDS ARCHIVES: Historical scores and odds data from past Major League Baseball seasons including runlines, opening and closing moneylines and totals. MLB 2020; MLB 2019; MLB 2018; MLB 2017; MLB 2016; MLB 2015; MLB 2014; MLB 2013; MLB 2012; MLB 2011; MLB 2010. See the odds for all 15 games on MLB's 2020 opening day (July 23rd and 24th) plus best bets and expert picks from the moneylines, runlines, and over/unders. The first winning strategy for MLB fantasy team owners and daily fantasy game enthusiasts is to check the updates every day. Lineups in baseball are an ever-changing landscape. Fickle managers will toy with the batting order or use a player platoon system to take advantage of statistical matchups. MLB Rangers in line to be first team back to full capacity The Texas Rangers and Colorado Rockies line the foul lines of Globe Life Field before an opening day baseball game in Arlingtn, Texas, in.
The page will endeavor to give the recreational baseball bettor advice on the various bets. I have no handicapping skill in baseball whatsoever, so the best I can do is steer you towards the best type of bets. There are three primary ways to bet on baseball, as follows.
- Money line: Bet on which team will win.
- Total: Bet on whether the total number of runs will fall above or below a stated number, usually between 7 and 12.
- Run line: Similar to a bet against the spread in football or basketball. However, in baseball the better team is always favored by 1.5. If the money line indicates neither team is favored, then either team could be the favored team.
Source of Data
The data this analysis is based on is from the Major League Baseball games played over the 2016 and 2017 seasons. I had to remove two games because of incomplete data. The total number of games this page is based on is 4,929.
Fun Facts
The following table shows the average number of runs, hits, errors.
MLB Averages 2016-2017
| Item | Away | Home | Total1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Runs | 4.47 | 4.64 | 9.10 |
| Hits | 8.71 | 8.64 | 17.34 |
| Errors | 0.58 | 0.58 | 1.16 |
| Total | 13.76 | 13.87 | 27.61 |
Notes
1. Totals may not appear to agree with sum of the parts, due to rounding.
Money Line Bets
When it comes to betting money lines in baseball, or any sports bet for that matter, what is number of basis points, or 'cents' between the lines of the two teams. For example, a 10-cent set of lines would be +120/-130 or +105/+105. Following is the theoretical house edge by number of cents in the lines, assuming the probability of each team winning is close to 50%.
- 10 cents: 2.38%
- 15 cents: 3.49%
- 20 cents: 4.55%
As of this writing (Sept. 20, 2018) here are which sports book groups offer which sets of money line bets in baseball.
- 10-cent lines: Westgate, William Hill, South Point, Stations, CG Technology, Golden Nugget, Jerry's Nugget, Boyd
- 15-cent lines: Stratosphere, Caesars, Wynn
- 20-cent lines: MGM/Mirage, Treasure Island
Home or Road Teams
I show money line bets on road teams perform slightly better than home teams. To be specific, I show the house edge to be 0.3% less on road teams than home teams. This is well within the margin of error, so I wouldn't put much stock in this difference.
Favorite or Underdog
Not surprisingly, I show money line bets on underdogs perform better than favorites. This seems to be true in every sport. To be specific, I show the house edge to be 0.70% less on underdogs compared to favorites.
Total Bets
The following table shows the number of times the total runs was over, under, and exactly on the over/under line. The return column shows the house edge, assuming a 20-cent line. Note that the house edge is 2.25% less on Under bets.
Over/Under Bets in MLB
| Outcome | Number | Probability | House Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 2315 | 46.97% | 5.45% |
| Under | 2373 | 48.14% | 3.20% |
| Push | 241 | 4.89% | |
| Total | 4929 | 100.00% |
Run Line Bets
Based on sets of 20-cent lines, I show the expected return laying 1.5 runs on the favorite is 96.90% and buying them on the underdog is 96.34%. This difference of 0.56%, favoring laying the 1.5 runs, is within the margin of error.
Internal Links
- Obscure Topics in Betting Major League Baseball — These are some tables I didn't bother to update when I updated this page with new data. Use the tables in this page, based on data from 2000 to 2009, with a grain of salt.
- Betting the NFL In-depth look at betting professional football.
- Betting the NBA In-depth look at betting professional basketball.
- Appendix 1 Comparative study on who has the best lines in Vegas.
- Appendix 2 Various topics in sports betting.
- Appendix 3 List of Las Vegas sports book families.
- Appendix 4 Fair prices to buy and sell points in the NFL.
- Appendix 5 Explores sports futures in greater depth.
- Appendix 6 Lost and expired tickets.
- Appendix 7 Companion to appendix 1, showing NFL money line pairs from several Internet sportbooks.
- Appendix 8 Comparitive study on who has the best lines offshore.
- Appendix 9 Companion to appendix 8, showing NFL money line pairs from offshore sportbooks.
- NFL Teasers.
- Total number of kickoffs in Super Bowl 43. Were there 9 or 10?
- Vegas sports book comparison at WizardOfVegas.com. Who offers what odds on parlays and teasers, as well as rebate percentages.
Written by: Michael Shackleford
The 2020 MLB season was unlike any other in history and one oddsmaker is preparing for more of the unknown as we look ahead to the 2021 season.
Baseball plans for a normal 162-game season beginning April 1, but PointsBet is honoring the possibility of a season stoppage or of teams losing out on stretches of games due to coronavirus complications. That’s why Win Totals are now listed instead as Season Win Percentage to protect bettors against those contingencies.
Andrew Mannino, senior analyst at PointsBet, said that there is not as much heavy action immediately following the 2020 season because of all the uncertainty. PointsBet has seen the most futures action on the teams that recently played in the ALCS (Rays and Astros) and NLCS (Braves and Dodgers).
“It’s hard to tell what the 2021 season is going to look like just yet,” said Mannino. “So I think that uncertainty leads people to bet with a bit more caution, and that helps the favorites.”
MLB odds 2021: World Series
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Divisional glance
Nhl Opening Lines
The Dodgers (+375) are bigger favorites to repeat as World Series champions at PointsBet than they are at DraftKings Sportsbook (+480) or FanDuel Sportsbook (+400). LA, which Mannino called one of the strongest teams we’ve seen in the last decade, is also a huge favorite to win the NL West (-715) despite the potential of a talented young Padres (+450) squad.
The rest of the Division Winners market at PB is more competitive, with big-time value offered for the Nationals (+375), Mets (+425), and Phillies (+575) to upset the favored Braves (-134) in the NL East. In a full length season, there is more opportunity for pitching to shine through and that gives the 2019 champion Nats a chance to bounce back.
“The Nationals are a team we’re expecting to get a lot more out of their starters this season,” said Mannino. “The Braves are a really good team and we like them a lot, so that’s why we’re being conservative with the prices on those other [NL East] teams.”
Mlb Opening Lineups
A full season also brings up questions about the ongoing debate between teams that rely on analytics, such as the Rays, and more traditional powers with huge payrolls, like the Yankees.
While Tampa Bay topped the Yankees, 3-2, in the ALDS, the Yanks (+525) are listed well above the Rays (+1200) in the World Series Outright market at DraftKings Sportsbook. The discrepancy is smaller at PointsBet, where the Yanks are +700 to Tampa’s +1000, but the Yankees are healthy -223 favorites to top the Rays (+240) and the rest of the AL East for a division crown.
“The Yankees are always a strong draw,” said Mannino. “They’re one of the best teams in the league and we expect a strong rebound this year. They have no shortage of talent, and we expect them to stay healthier.”
When asked about the long history of injuries to Yankees sluggers Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, Mannino pointed to the flexibility available in a usual 162-game season.
“A longer season obviously increases the opportunity for injuries, but with proper spring training, everything could go ahead as normal,” he said. “Normally in an MLB season, each game isn’t quite as impactful [as in the 60-game 2020 season], whereas each game lost to injury was a huge deal this past season.”
More unpredictability on the way?
With most bettors looking at the final four teams standing this October, there is an opportunity to take a team that is flying under the radar this offseason. There should be significant player movement once the guidelines of free agency are established, and the Rays have proven that even a team with one of the smallest payrolls in baseball can make the World Series.
So when it comes to MLB futures, PointsBet advises that bettors continue to expect the unexpected.
“The biggest trend we’re looking at is the unpredictability,” said Mannino. “There’s always a chance for teams to make a run like [the Rays]. A team can always take advantage of the numbers and find a way to get into the playoffs and once you get into the playoffs, anything can happen.”