Khabib Vegas Odds
- Nov 30, 2019 With the fight official, the early betting odds have champ Nurmagomedov a decent favorite. Nurmagomedov is a -250 favorite at BetMGM.com. The comeback on Ferguson is +180. In other words, a $100 bet on Ferguson would pay out $280 (including the original $100 wager) if he pulls the upset.
- Oct 22, 2020 Khabib Nurmagomedov (-357) vs. Justin Gaethje (+275) odds Khabib (28-0) is one of the heaviest betting favorites on the UFC 254 fight card, as he defends his lightweight crown against Gaethje (22-2). It would take a $357 bet to return a $100 profit with a win by Nurmagomedov.
In May, Justin Gaethje beat Tony Ferguson to become the interim champ despite going into the octagon as an underdog at +187 odds. Against Khabib Nurmagomedov, he’s an even bigger underdog, but can he upset the odds one more time? We will find out the answer on Saturday afternoon when the Khabib vs Gaethje unification bout is taking place.
Jul 29, 2020 Georges St-Pierre: UFC denied Khabib Nurmagomedov fight to avoid 'the risk of me winning' The bookmaker also offered odds on the fight taking place before the end of 2021. You can back the fight to take place before December 31 next year at odds of +550, with -1000 available for those wanting to back against the fight taking place before that time. Oct 21, 2020 The UFC will heat up the Flash Forum on UFC Fight Island in Abu Dhabi for UFC 254 on Saturday Oct. 24 and the main event will feature a UFC Lightweight Championship bout between champion Khabib Nurmagomedov and interim champion Justin Gaethje. Our Vegas Insiders provide the opening odds and line movement analysis for the title fight.
- When: Saturday, October 24
- Where: Flash Forum on Yas Island, UAE
- How to Watch: UFC Fight Pass
Khabib vs Gaethje Odds
The Road to the Fight
It’s safe to say that only a year ago, no one thought Khabib vs Gaethje was going to be arguably the biggest event in the UFC in 2020. Khabib was supposed to defend his title at UFC 249, but due to the COVID-19 travel restrictions, his bout with Tony Ferguson was canceled. Instead, Justin Gaethje stepped in as his replacement.
Odds were heavily favoring El Cucuy ahead of the Ferguson vs Gaethje clash on May 9. However, a big upset happened when Gaethje’s punches made the judge declare a TKO victory for the American, thus making him the interim champion.
The moment it happened, the entire MMA world started thinking about the superfight between Gaethje and Khabib. Five months later, the unification is actually happening.
Khabib vs Gaethje Tale of the Tape
In the Name of the Father
The undefeated MMA legend comes from a fighting family, with another UFC fighter Abubakar Nurmagomedov being his cousin. Khabib made his first step in the world of combat sports when he was only a toddler, thanks to his father Abdulmanap.
Khabib’s dad was the one who introduced him to wrestling in the rural area of Dagestan in Russia where bears are thought of as a sort of domestic animal.
From wrestling bears, Khabib moved to Sambo, the sport in which his father was an established coach. In 2008, Khabib made his transition to MMA, but Abdulmanap remained his coach. He stayed a part of his son’s coaching team until the end of his life – on July 3, 2020, Khabib’s father died as the result of complications caused by the COVID-19.
In the following weeks after Abdulmanap’s death, rumors about Khabib retiring started emerging. However, they were debunked when his team announced the Eagle will take part in the UFC 254. Not only does he have no intention of retiring, but unifying the Lightweight titles would be a proper homage to his father.
Khabib vs Gaethje Betting Picks
Khabib has probably never been this motivated to win a fight, which is one of the reasons why UFC sportsbooks are giving him the role of the favorite. With -305 odds, he’s expected to win the fight comfortably. However, the same as the case with Tony Ferguson back in May.
In a recent interview, Gaethje seemed very confident in his ability to shock the MMA world once again. According to the interim champion, titles are not his only motivation. He’d also like to ruin the party for everyone rooting against him.
I’m here to ruin Ali’s day, I’m here to ruin Dana White’s day, I’m here to ruin Daniel Cormier’s day, I’m here to ruin Javier Mendes’ day, I’m here to ruin Khabib Nurmagomedov’s day.
Sure, he did something similar already this year, but everyone needs to keep in mind that Ferguson did not have too much time to prepare for that fight. In fact, his mind was set on Khabib until only a few weeks before the event.
This time, it’s different – Khabib has had months to prepare himself for the fight, both physically and emotionally.
Our Picks:
- Khabib Nurmagomedov to Win
- Under 4.5 Rounds
- October 21, 2020
- By Adam Lykkesteen
- VegasInsider.com
UFC 254 Odds & Analysis
The Ultimate Fighting Championship heads back to UFC Fight Island on the 24th of October for UFC 254 headlined by Khabib Nurmagomedov vs Justin Gaethje squaring off for the UFC Lightweight Championship.
We’re going to take a closer look at the opening betting odds and line movements for the main event.
UFC 253 Recap
UFC 253: Underdogs 5-6 (Return +157)
UFC 253 marked the return of the underdogs, as the four prior events had seen favorites up +1815. Blinding betting $100 on all underdogs of UFC 253 would’ve given you a $157 profit.
Justin Gaethje has been installed as a healthy underdog for his title fight match against Khabib Nurmagomedov. (AP)
UFC 254 NURMAGOMEDOV-GAETHJE BETTING RESOURCES
- Date: Saturday, Oct. 24, 2020
- TV-Time: ESPN/ESPN+, ESPN PPV 10:00 a.m. ET
- Venue: Flash Forum
- Location: Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
UFC LIGHTWEIGHT CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS
KHABIB NURMAGOMEDOV VS. JUSTIN GAETHJE
The undisputed lightweight champion, Khabib Nurmagomedov, puts his undefeated record on the line when he faces interim champion Justin Gaethje in the main event of UFC 254. Gaethje is fresh off the biggest win of his career over Tony Ferguson, rounding out a clinical performance with a 5th round TKO win over ‘El Cucuy’ at UFC 249.
The last time we saw Nurmagomedov compete was when he beat top contender Dustin Poirier via 2nd round submission a year ago at UFC 242, in Abu Dhabi.
This fight is Nurmagomedov’s to lose, as he puts everything on the line to try and beat the next hungry challenger. Will Gaethje be the one to take the champion’s 0?
NURMAGOMEDOV VS. GAETHJE ODDS MOVEMENT
This line initially opened back in July, it was with the champion as a -250 favorite (Bet $100 to win $40) and Gaethje as a +200 underdog.
Since then, the line movement listed below has reflected a dispute over where the value is.
As of Wednesday Oct. 21, Nurmagomedov has spiked up to a minus-350 favorite over Gaethje as bettors have shown more of a lean to the undefeated champion.
Along with backing Khabib to win the fight, the early Over-Under money is expecting the fight to finish in less than 22 and a half minutes. Total bettors have been staring at a number of 4.5 rounds with the money shaded to the Under (-175) versus the Over (+155).
I would expect more money to come in on the Under by Saturday knowing Khabib has finished his last two opponents inside distance and Gaethje has only heard the judges scorecards twice in his 24-fight career.
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KHABIB NURMAGOMEDOV VS. JUSTIN GAETHJE
BETTING ANALYSIS
I can’t argue with the betting line for this fight. Nurmagomedov is the undefeated champion who has crushed every single opponent in his tracks. On the other hand, Gaethje does pose an interesting challenge for the Russian. With his background in wrestling, he will rely on his takedown defense to hold up against Nurmagomedov’s relentless attempts of getting this fight to the mat.
Now with that being said, I reckon Gaethje’s wrestling credentials have been oversold just a bit as of late. Sure, people want to see Khabib struggle, but in comparison, to the champion’s extensive wrestling foundation I see no one in the lightweight division coming close, apart from newly signed olympic wrestler Mark O. Madsen.
Gaethje has stopped 7 out of 9 takedowns attempted against him in his UFC career, and has an 80% takedown defense to boast about. Here’s my issue: Justin hasn’t faced a chain wrestler like Khabib in the UFC before. Someone who does not stop until he has you pinned on the ground. Justin’s cardio will be severely tested in this fight, and I don’t see it holding up for 5 rounds on the backfoot against the champion.
In 2020, champions have bested the challenger in every single title fight (excluding fights for a vacant belt). This gives us statistical significance on the champion, and while laying -286 chalk on the champion might not seem that appealing, I think the betting line will start to favor Gaethje a bit more in the not too distant future.
He had that main event spot against Tony Ferguson. It was during the COVID-19 lockdown where casual bettors from all sports were flocking to the UFC events since they were the only thing that was on.
Now, the casual bettors are all over Gaethje, and even though his performance against Ferguson was impressive, we have to remember that styles make fights, and a fight against a pure striker hardly prepares you for a pure grappler.
Averaging 5+ takedowns per fight and absorbing just over one strike per minute, I like the champion in this spot. He has very effective head movement, and rarely gets hit. I don’t see how Gaethje has a better chance than someone like McGregor, who has the most dynamic and fluid striking in the division if you ask me.
UFC NURMAGOMEDOV - BETTING HISTORY (LAST 5)
UFC 242: Nurmagomedov vs. Poirier
Khabib Nurmagomedov -455 vs. Dustin Poirier +350
UFC 229: Nurmagomedov vs. McGregor
Khabib Nurmagomedov -189 vs. Conor McGregor +162
UFC 223: Nurmagomedov vs. Iaquinta
Khabib Nurmagomedov -615 vs. Al Iaquinta +495
UFC 219: Cyborg vs. Holm
Khabib Nurmagomedov -398 vs. Edson Barboza +342
UFC 205: Alvarez vs. McGregor
Khabib Nurmagomedov -336 vs. Michael Johnson +294
UFC GAETHJE - BETTING HISTORY (LAST 5)
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
Justin Gaethje +200 vs. Tony Ferguson -250
UFC on ESPN+ 16: Cowboy vs. Gaethje
Justin Gaethje -175 vs. Donald Cerrone +150
Mcgregor Vs Khabib Vegas Odds
UFC on ESPN+ 2: Barboza vs. Gaethje
Justin Gaethje +100 vs. Edson Barboza -125
UFC Fight Night 135: Gaethje vs. Vick
Justin Gaethje +123 vs. James Vick -137
Vegas Odds Nfl
UFC on FOX 29: Poirier vs. Gaethje
Justin Gaethje +108 vs. Derek Brunson -122